There is no sure thing, but scoring at least one run with two runners in scoring position with no outs is as close as you can get. It takes a high degree of poor play and bad luck to not tally at least one number in the box score at that point.
But so it goes with the Cubs. In Thursday’s series finale in Toronto, they had exactly that scenario. Down 2-1 in the eighth inning, they got two men on, both of whom advanced on a wild pitch during Ian Happ’s at bat and stood on second and third base, waiting to score the tying and go-ahead runs. With no outs, there are several different scenarios in which Happ drives in the game-tying run (if another wild pitch doesn’t score the guy on third on its own). Even if he can’t do it, there are two other chances after that. And both of those are guys who should be able to get the job done: Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly.
If you watched the game, you already know what happened, but just in case you didn’t: Happ, Tucker, and Kelly each struck out. Remarkable.
It’s a microcosm of where the Cubs have been for over two months now, and I’m not convinced there’s any way of salvaging things.
Let’s dig into it a little:
On June 1, the Cubs were 15 games above .500 and had a 4-game lead in the division over the Cardinals. The Brewers were 5.5 games back and in third place.
The Cubs had a +97 run differential and were in second place in baseball in total runs scored, two behind the Dodgers.
The Cubs had a 73% chance of winning the division, the Brewers just 9.9%.
On August 15, the Cubs are 16 games above .500, but now 8 games behind the Brewers in the division.
Their run differential has improved to +115, and their 605 total runs scored are still good enough for fifth in the league.
But now the Brewers have a nearly 91% chance of winning the division, and the Cubs are at just 9.3%. The Cubs’ best bet has become a wild card spot.
Here’s the weird part:
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