Cubs as Sellers?
Dispelling a ridiculous notion
I blame the binary nature of most thinking in the modern age for the assumption that at the MLB trade deadline every team has to fit into one of two categories. Either they are contending for a playoff spot and are therefore buyers, or they are not making the postseason and sellers instead. One or the other, little room for anything in between.
This is not really how it’s ever worked, but it doesn’t stop the conversation this time of year from splitting teams into these two camps. This is probably why, in light of a month’s worth of struggles, some in the baseball world are ready to label the Cubs as sellers.
Given the current National League standings, it doesn’t seem likely the Cubs are making the playoffs, so by that standard it’s understandable. Fangraphs has their chances of making the postseason at 42.8% as I write this. Considering they were 91.2% on May 8, that’s quite a drop. Assuming they aren’t going to stage a turnaround in the next month, it is fair to wonder how they’ll approach the trade deadline at the end of July.
One thing that can be ruled out, however, is the notion that they’ll be sellers. There are several reasons for this:
Selling is out of sync with the front office’s approach over the last few seasons. They’ve invested heavily in the roster, from signing veterans like Alex Bregman to extending young talent like Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Selling at this deadline would indicate a move away from contention, and the Cubs still very much believe they’re in a contention window, even with as poorly as this season has gone. Not to mention that they have few truly sellable pieces, unless teams are going to take on one of these sizable contracts.
The Cubs are wickedly streaky, so it’s not outlandish to think they could surge in the standings just as quickly as they’ve fallen.
