Making sense of the Tigers

The hottest October team shouldn't be here

On August 11, the Detroit Tigers had a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. They were seven games below .500 and in fourth place in their division. A month later, their playoff odds had risen to just under 11%, an impressive jump so late in the season, but the real madness was yet to come.

When I covered the team for MLB.com for a weekend in late August, the talk in the clubhouse at the time was just trying to get to .500. Playoffs were more of a 2025 dream. Unless you’ve been paying no attention, you know how things have gone since then. Just take a look at their playoff odds chart:

Now, as I write this, the Tigers a win away from advancing to the ALCS and have, according to Fangraphs, a 10% of winning the World Series. That’s nuts.

So what on earth happened here? There are a couple of things to look at, but the main thing is how manager AJ Hinch has handled his pitching staff.