Spring Slide
Time to get worried?
I haven’t scoured the baseball history books, but I don’t imagine that it’s too common for a team to put together two 10-game winning streaks before mid-May and still find themselves in third place in their division heading into Memorial Day weekend. But that’s exactly where the Cubs are.
After an off day on Thursday, they will host the Astros at Wrigley this weekend, nursing the wounds of a 3-6 road trip against the Rangers, Braves, and White Sox and then a sweep at the hands of the Brewers at home this week. It’s not been a good stretch.
The Cubs are still 8 games above .500, but in the National League Central this year, that’s good for third place. In their last 12 games, they’ve lost seven games in the standings.
Is it time to get worried? As the Cubs got off to a very hot start and were rattling off wins in double-digit stretches not that long ago, there were still signs of trouble to come. Injuries to the pitching staff kept piling up, and there was an increasing sense that the 2026 Cubs could turn out a lot like the 1985 Cubs.
The similarities are there: Coming off of a very successful 1984 season, the Cubs were expected to make another deep postseason run the next year. To start ‘85, they went 12-6 in April, 15-11 in May, and then never posted a month with a winning record after that. The Cubs finished seven games under .500 and in fourth place in 1985. The culprit? Injuries to their pitching staff. They lost Rick Sutcliffe, Dennis Eckersley, Scott Sanderson, and Steve Trout in close succession and went on a 13-game losing streak that June that sunk the season.
Just because that happened 41 years ago, doesn’t mean it will again. But at the same time, the 2026 Cubs are coming off of a good season the year prior, in which they went to the last game of the NLDS. They were expected to be even better this year, in part because Cade Horton and Justin Steele would be coming back from injuries. Instead, Horton is gone for the season, and Steele had a setback in his recovery a few weeks ago that has rendered his date of return questionable. Boyd has been out with a bicep issue and then knee surgery, and on Wednesday night Edward Cabrera left his start in the fourth inning because of a blister.
It doesn’t help that while the Cubs are navigating all of this, the rest of the division has been red hot. As of Thursday morning, all five teams were above .500. For perspective, there are five teams in the entire American League with winning records right now.
And perhaps worst of all, the Brewers seem to have the reverse fortune of the Cubs — despite trading away key players like Freddy Peralta and injuries to others, they just keep winning. The Cardinals were supposed to be in a rebuilding year, but instead, they’re ahead of the Cubs and enjoying the fun of “tarps off” celebrations in the stands. The team is wisely leaning into it too, offering free tickets to fans who want to join the fun.
So is this it? Is it 1985 all over again? Are the Cubs in trouble?
Listen, there are a lot of things about the world reverting to life in the mid-80s that I would very much enjoy (fire up “The Power of Love” by Huey Lewis and the News and imagine a world without internet trolls and tell me you disagree), but I don’t think the Cubs are there.
Here’s why:
They’re getting good news on the injury front, even if it’s still a slow trickle. Ever-important relief arm Caleb Thielbar rejoined the bullpen from the injured list on Tuesday. Matt Boyd is looking like he’ll make an early return from knee surgery. Steele could still be back for the second half, and if he is, that’ll be a boon for the pitching staff. He was in the Cubs’ locker room on Wednesday, and Craig Counsell said he’s set to see his doctor late next week to determine next steps in his rehab.
It’s only May. Listen, I love stuff like the tarps off celebrations in St. Louis, but if you think I believe they’ll maintain the fervor for that through June, July, August, and September, I just don’t. The first cold stretch that team has, it’ll fizzle. And the Cards have a -1 run differential right now. It’s really tough to keep winning games when that’s the case.
Expect the Cubs to be active at the trade deadline. If they’re contending, they’re going to make a move. Even if it means trading away some of their major league talent (sorry, Matt Shaw), the opportunity to get back into the postseason won’t get passed over. By late July, I expect the Cubs to get reinforcements for their pitching staff.
So relax. It’s not even Memorial Day yet. This recent Cubs skid has been all of 12 days long. That’s a blip in a baseball season.
Things I’ve Done Lately:
On the Cubs getting swept by the Brewers. Wednesday night’s game was one of the rougher ones I’ve seen in a long time.
On the White Sox walk-off win over the Cubs. Not what north side fans want to read right now, perhaps, but those south siders are looking increasingly for real.
Last weekend’s crosstown series was a measuring stick for the White Sox. So take credit, Cubs fans, they needed to prove themselves against your team.
What I’m Digging Right Now:
I’m a fan of Malcolm Guite, and I’m going to have to check out his new Arthurian epic, Galahad and the Grail.
More Guite: He was on Matt Fradd’s podcast this week, and it’s tremendous.
I appreciate when sports humble people who need it, especially when the team I root for does it.