Testing Grounds
On an important series on the south side
One of the more fun surprises this season has been the Chicago White Sox. Projected during the preseason to win just over 70 games, they’re not only on pace to exceed that projection but to potentially do a lot more than be just a pleasant first half surprise.
As this week begins, the White Sox are one game behind the Guardians in the American League Central, and beginning Monday night, they’ll have an important series against Cleveland. With at least a series win, the White Sox will move into first place with a chance to increase their division lead during the upcoming weekend series against the Royals.
No one is running away with the AL Central yet, and I anticipate it could be a division race that goes up to the last week of the season. But the fact that the White Sox are in the hunt for the top spot this late into June is noteworthy.
There are a few reasons why they’re in this spot, and also a few things to keep an eye on if they’re going to keep winning in the second half of the season. As for the good, it boils down to home cooking and a relentless offense.
At Rate Field, the White Sox are 24-12. They’ve won via walkoff five times. But on the road, the White Sox are ten games below .500, at 15-25. They haven’t won an away series since they went to San Diego at the beginning of May. Most every team does better at home than on the road, but if the White Sox are to have any prayer of winning their division or at least getting into the playoffs as a wild card team, they have to do better on the road.
But one of the things that has been encouragingly consistent about the White Sox is their offense. In 2025, they ranked 27th in baseball in runs scored; this season, they have jumped 13 spots to 14th in the league. They trail only the Yankees in home runs this year, and in 2025 they were down the list at 23rd.
They’re getting this kind of production thanks largely to three players. There’s the continued growth of Colson Montgomery, who came up last year and hit 21 homers in just 71 games and has 20 already this season. Then there’s Miguel Vargas, who has taken a huge step forward on offense; he has 16 home runs this year; that matches the total number he hit in 2025. And of course there’s Munetaka Murakami, who had clubbed 20 homers of his own before going on the injured list with a hamstring strain on May 30.
Guys hitting homers is, of course, an oversimplification of what makes an offense good, but that much power coming from just three guys in the lineup does make a big difference. On the whole, their team OPS has risen from .675 last year to .729 so far this season. That’s going to help you win a lot more games.
All of that said, there are some significant flaws to this White Sox team, and ones that go deeper than having a hard time winning on the road.
Namely, they do not have a full rotation, and the high leverage arms in the bullpen are too often unreliable. The White Sox have four guys in their rotation right now, but one of them (Erick Fedde) has been coming in after an opener in most of his recent outings, so it often feels more like three arms in the rotation. Noah Shultz could be returning from injury soon, but even with him, the Sox are still short a starting pitcher, not to mention that he’s a rookie and expecting too much from Schultz isn’t reasonable. If they’re serious about continuing to win, the rotation will have to be addressed. Every contending team is looking for starting pitchers at the trade deadline, but that’s not an excuse for the Sox to be passive. Competitive windows are never guaranteed to stay open, so when you get a team that has a playoff shot, you do your best to capitalize.
That’s also why the White Sox could stand to shore up their bullpen. Their relievers have an 18th ranked 4.30 ERA, and they’ve blown 12 saves. The latter doesn’t put them near the worst teams in the league, but that’s too many for a team that’s trying to do something with their season.
These are all more long-term issues, and in the immediate future, the White Sox have three very important games at home against the Guardians this week. Based on how the Sox have done at Rate Field this season, it’s safe to expect they’ll win the series. On their last homestand, they got the better of the Braves and Dodgers, so for this team’s flaws, they have shown they can beat baseball’s best, at least when those matchups are in Chicago.
Things I’ve Done Lately:
On Pete Crow-Armstrong batting at the top of the order. He’s thriving, but he might not stay in that spot.
On that last homestand for the White Sox. It was an encouraging sign, but again, they have to start winning on the road, too.
On Craig Counsell embracing the challenge of the 2026 season. It’s not gone much like anyone expected, but for what it’s worth, Counsell is leaning into doing his best despite all that’s gone wrong.
What I’m Digging Right Now:
Cal Newport on AI companies and what he’s calling “doom trolling.” It’s bad enough that this technology seems foisted on us, so I appreciate Newport’s call to AI companies to knock it off with the attempts to frighten people about the future they’re creating.
Derek Thompson on what he calls the “enhanced self” and our obsession with it. We are reducing nearly everything to its metrics, and, like Thompson, I think we need to chill a little.
World Cup fans from around the world coming to the U.S. and discovering how great it is here. There are too many videos to link, but do a quick search if you haven’t already.