I’ll start by saying that there is no easy answer here. Anyone who has followed the first month of the Cubs season has seen how poorly Kyle Hendricks is pitching. Through five starts, his ERA is 12.00. The Cubs have lost four of those games, the one win happened because they overcame the five runs Hendricks surrendered and heaped nine on Dodgers pitching.
In a full season, Hendricks might make around 30 starts. At the current rate, the Cubs would get about six wins from those 30 games. No one needs to be told that won’t work.
The simple, “baseball is a business” answer is to take him out of the rotation.
The not-so-simple problem with that is what to do with him from there, as well as figuring out who should take his place. Let’s start with what happens with Hendricks:
Option 1: Try him in the bullpen
In Kyle’s 11-year career, he’s made 252 appearances. 251 of those as a starter. Simply transitioning to the bullpen isn’t a no-brainer in his case. Yes, it can be done, but Hendricks has been a starting pitcher his entire career, so you’re not asking him to make an insignificant change in his role here.
I also don’t imagine that him pitching out of the bullpen is going to make much of a difference. You can look at things like his groundball rate and barrel rate over the years and I don’t think anything is going to jump out as the obvious explanation for what’s gone wrong. Yes, his hard-hit numbers have climbed somewhat since the first few years of his career, but on the whole, there are no glaring outliers:
In the image, I highlighted the 2022 season because I think it might be his worst until this one. That was also the year that he had shoulder issues that ultimately ended his season in early July, so take it with a grain of salt.
The one advantage to becoming a relief pitcher might be the ability to simplify his pitch mix. In 2024, Hendricks has used his changeup, sinker, four-seam fastball, and the occasional curveball. Looking at how those pitches have performed this season, reducing his sinker/four-seam usage could help:
But, as Hendricks himself told us after his start against the Marlins on Sunday, the problem might be coming from somewhere else:
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